19. November 2007 by Ana Connell.

Well, we had quite a volatile day as the Dow closed below the psychological 13,000 mark. Dow was down 218 points and closed at 12958.

Items of note:

• Goldman Sachs downgraded Citigroup to a sell.
• Lowe’s lost 7.6% today on weak earnings.
• The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Index came in at 19 for the second straight month, this is the lowest since the record keeping began in 1985.
• Goldman Sachs forecasted that the current credit problems will result in $2 trillion of reduced bank lending for next year.

I certainly hope that many of these reports are wrong, but I have heard from many sources that lending will be extremely tight if not non-existent for certain segments of the market. Most likely to be impacted are the $500k-1,000M housing segment.

The yield on the two year note fell to 3.17%, 5 year to 3.55% and 10 year to 4.07%.

Investment maven Abby Cohen from Goldman Sachs is still forecasting a year end rally for stocks, but the bond market is giving another signal altogether. The last time we did not have a December year end rally was in 2000, right before the 2001 dip in the markets. We’ll have to wait and see just how impacted the rest of the economy is perceived to be by the current credit crunch, higher fuel prices, foreign political turmoil and the amount of foreign investment dollars coming in to balance things out.

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19. November 2007 by Ana Connell.

This chart includes housing data for each respective zip code listed for the October 2007 period and percent change from October 2006 levels.

As you can see from the table below, housing prices for the month have varied by area, but it’s interesting to note that the higher end of the market has not been as affected, at least as far as median price, by the slow down.

Most notably in Toluca Lake(91602) we saw a 42.7% increase in the median home price, Studio City(91604) experienced a 3.3% increase and the Hollywood Hills(90068) saw a 12.8% increase in the median home price. What’s been most impacted in many areas is the volume of sales. The main reason for this is that it has become harder for many to obtain a mortgage loan, especially if it’s above the conforming limit of $417,000, which as you can see from the chart below, most areas are above this number.

In Burbank the 91506 area fared best with a 4.8% increase over last year’s median home price.

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19. November 2007 by Ana Connell.

Monday 19

Housing Market Index-Produced by the National Association of Home Builders. This is a survey which is filled out by the members of this organization and it gives their opinion of the general state of the housing market and the economy.

3 Month & 6 Month Bill Auction

Tuesday 20

Housing Starts Consensus 1.60M Starts dropped 10.2% in September, lowest since 1993.

State Street Investor Confidence Index Measures actual levels of risk in investor portfolio.

ICSC-USB Store Sales Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales. Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales. This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

4 Week bill Auction

FOMC Minutes-release of the notes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Wednesday 21

Leading Indicators-Consensus -.3% -Report looks at ten different sources that are supposed to indicate overall economic activity. This figure tends to be revised after the fact and does not do a great job of predicting downturns or upturns.

Consumer Sentiment Consensus 75 The University of Michigan conducts a monthly survey of 500 households about their financial condition and opinions about the economy.

Jobless Claims Unemployment claims. Consensus 330k

MBA Purchase Applications measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is considered a leading indicator for single family home sales and housing construction.

EIA Petroleum Status Report reports on crude oil inventories in the U.S.

EIA Natural Gas Report-Tracks natural gas inventories.

3 , 6 month Treasury Bill Announcement Investors use this data to attempt to predict future Federal Reserve policy.

Thursday 22

Thanksgiving Holiday!

Friday 23

Money Supply

This week the focus will be on the financial and housing market data. Housing Market Index  and the Housing Starts will be out on Monday and Tuesday of this week and are considered a gauge of economic activity and momentum.

Have a great Thanksgiving holiday and week!

Remember to click on the links for more information on each report.

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