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You are currently browsing the Burbank Real Estate Report weblog archives for October, 2007.

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Archive for October 2007

Rising Inventories…… What They Mean To You

If you are a buyer in Los Angeles, then you are in the driver’s seat. According to a report compiled by ZipRealty, Los Angeles is at the top of the list of cities with the biggest housing inventories. houses-on-graph.jpg

Here is a list of the 10 U.S. cities with the highest housing inventories as of September 2007 and the percentage of homes currently listed on the market whose listing price has been reduced as of Sept. 30.

Top 10 Cities With Highest Housing Inventories City # of Homes for Sale % of homes with price reductions

  •  Los Angeles: 111,269               45.9
  • Chicago:           82,839              40.8
  • Miami:              79,154              38.1
  • Tampa:             58,601              42.3
  • Phoenix:           54,536              47.1
  • Washington:     52,854              46.8
  • Dallas:              47,097              35.9
  • Boston:             43,158              48.4
  • Sacramento:    40,195               51.4
  • Houston:           39,332              36.7

What this means to you is that you have many more choices and you have more flexibility to negotiate terms with home sellers. As long as you are pre-approved for a loan and have your financial house in order, you, through your agent, are free to submit offers on homes that fit your criteria and loan approval level.

Keep in mind, however, that home sellers, in many cases, are not desperate and you may negotiate yourself out of a sale. As long as you are reasonable and are working with a knowledgeable real estate agent you should be able to find your dream home for a good price.

If you are a seller, make sure you are being realistic with your asking price. Work with your agent and make sure you are informed as to what the comparables in the area have sold for and what current comparables are priced at. I would also recommend that you have a home inspection before you get an offer so you know what repairs or issues may come up. An unexpected major repair surprise in the middle of escrow is not fun for either the buyer or the seller.

As the seller you need to have a plan as to how you will handle repair issues and price reductions, before you you get an offer. The process of selling your home can be emotional and addressing these concerns ahead of time helps eliminate some of the emotional component and stress that comes with it. Because there are many homes on the market right now, proper pricing is the number one reason that homes are selling. Second is presentation. If a home in the same neighborhood with the same square footage has nicer landscaping and looks better inside, buyers will probably consider that home first. Your agent should be able to advise you on what improvements or staging ideas to implement before you put your home for sale. Lastly, the market value of your home is whatever buyers are willing to pay for it. Know going into the process of selling your home what your time frame is and how much money you need to get out of the sale.

If you don’t have to sell your home and are not willing to negotiate, waiting may be the best course of action for you.

The Economic Week Ahead……

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Monday 29

3 & 6 Month Bill Auction

Tuesday 30

ICSC-USB Store Sales Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales. Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales. This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

Consumer Confidence

4 Week Bill Auction

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meeting Begins!

Wednesday 31

MBA Purchase Applications-Measures Mortgage Lender applications, this is considered a leading indicator of single family home sales!

ADP Employment Report-National Employment report based on private payrolls

GDP-The broadest measure of economic activity that takes all sectors of the economy into account.

Employment Cost Index-Measures total employee compensation costs, including benefits.

EIA Petroleum Status Report-Measures petroleum inventories in the US

Construction Spending- Good indicator of the economy’s momentum.

NAPM-Chicago-Business conditions in the Chicago area, another measure of economic growth.

10 year note and 30 year Treasury Bond Announcement

Farm Prices

FOMC Announcement!

Thursday 1

Pending Homes Sales Index-Release from NAR Gauges demand and momentum of housing market

Monster Employment Index Job availability compiled by Monsters from 1500+ websites.

Challenger Job Cut Report Announced corporate layoffs.

Jobless Claims Unemployment claims.

Personal Income Outlays-Consumer spending Consensus is .4% Another measure to gauge consumer spending power.

ISM Manufacturing Index Survey of manufacturing firms that measure their sentiments on a variety of areas including employment, production, new orders and inventories.

EIA Natural Gas Report

Motor Vehicle Sales

3 and 6 month Treasury Bill Announcement Investors use this data to attempt to predict future Federal Reserve policy.

Money Supply

Friday 2

Employment Situation-Set of labor market indicators

Factory Orders

Coming up this week all eyes will be on the Fed announcement on Wednesday!

If you read my Economic Week in Review post you have a sense of our current situation, which is not great and you can expect some more fallout in earnings from the subprime situation. There was much speculation last week as to how much the Fed might ease. While there is a precedent for back to back 50 basis point cuts I think the Fed might be more concerned with the weak dollar, record high oil and gold prices and the inflationary implications.

Have a great week everyone!

Burbank City Council Update!

We don’t have a very heavy agenda this week, but there were items of interest both for last week’s and the upcoming agenda.

Items of Note:

Last week the Burbank City Council approved the parking amendment for multifamily dwellings. dsc00142.JPG

This week the Council will look at the Rancho Amendment again, following up from the September 11th meeting. This time the text has been changed to make grocery stores a prohibited use in the Rancho commercial zones as opposed to just requiring a conditional use permit for the stores to operate.

The Burbank City Council will be meeting Tuesday at 6pm in the Burbank City Hall Council Chambers.

Remember that you can watch the City Council meetings live on Charter Communications Channel 6 or online at City of Burbank’s website.

If you are interested in reading the actual Burbank City Council agendas, please visit the City of Burbank website, City Council Activities!

Have a great week!

The Economic Week in Review…..

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Stocks rallied today with Microsoft’s blowout earnings announcement, their fiscal first quarter earnings beat expectations by more than $1 billion and Countrywide’s upbeat profit forecast for the future.

Overall, it was another turbulent week with rumors swinging the market every which way. Rumors that the Fed will lower interest rates again when they meet next week, that AIG will have a very large write down etc.

Items of note for the week:

Merrill Lynch wrote down a whopping $7.9 billion of subprime and collateralized debt obligations, this was $3.4 billion dollars ABOVE their October 5th estimate! They reported a $2.24 billion dollar loss as compared to last year’s $3.05 billion dollar profit. Needless to say, the subprime debacle continues to spread.

New Homes Sales, which were expected to come in at 770k(representing a 3.1% decline from August)came in at this number but the headline read it as a 4.8% increase as the August number, which was originally reported as 795k was revised to 735k. Confusing? A little but the revision made the September number look great, even though it came in as expected…….assuming no revisions.

Existing Homes Sales fell 8% to an annualized 5.04M. This is the slowest pace since the National Association of Realtors started reporting on this figure in 1999! The year to year decline is at 19.1%.

Housing Inventories for September were at a 10.5 month supply, the highest level since 1999.

Median price of a home fell to $211,700The number was not much of a surprise, but keep in mind that this number only accounts for closings, not sales so you can probably expect next month’s number to look even worse.

Countrywide posted a third quarter net loss, as expected, at $1.2 billion or $2.85 per share and maintained it’s dividend.

Jobless Claims came in at 331k representing a second straight week of higher claim numbers.

Oil closed the week at a record high of $91.86

On the mortgage side, the 2-year note is 3.81%, the 5-year at 4.04%, and the 10-year ended at 4.45%. The fact that treasury yields are staying low tells us that investor dollars are still going towards quality.

Anticipation of a Fed rate cut next week will dominate next week’s trading. Although with the dollar getting pounded, oil at record highs and more liquidity in the markets, the case for a rate hike is becoming less viable. Some were anticipating a 50 basis point cut, but I think either a Fed on the sidelines or a 25 basis point cut are more likely.

National Housing Update!

houses-on-graph.jpg

Existing Home Sales (September) 5.05M -8%, compared to the 5.48M revised number for August, sales are 19.1% below the 6.23M pace in September 2006

Pending Homes Sales Index (August) 85.5 -6.5%

New Home Sales Index (August) The September numbers, which were expected to come in at 770k(representing a 3.1% decline from August)came in at this number. The headlines reported it as a 4.8% increase oly because the August number, which was originally reported as 795k was revised to 735k. Yes, just a bit confusing!

Basically the number came in as expected but because the August numbers were revised downward, the September number looked better than it actually was.

Housing Starts (September) 1191m -10.2%, year to year they are down 30.8%

Housing Affordability (August) 106.1 up 2.4%

Housing Supplies Inventory is at 10.5 month supply which is the largest since 1999.

Nationally existing home prices dropped 4.2%, the median price is at $211,700.

Although this information has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it may be incomplete or condensed.