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Archive for 30. September 2007

The Economic Week Ahead…..

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Monday 1

ISM Manufacturing Index Consensus-52.9 Survey of manufacturing firms that measure their sentiments on a variety of areas including employment, production, new orders and inventories.

3 & 6 Month Bill Auction

Tuesday 2

Pending Homes Sales Index-Release from NAR Gauges demand and momentum of housing market

ICSC-USB Store Sales Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales. Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales. This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

Motor Vehicle Sales Consensus 12.4M

4 Week Bill Auction

Wednesday 3

Challenger Job Cut Report Announced corporate layoffs.

MBA Purchase Applications-Measures Mortgage Lender applications, this is considered a leading indicator of single family home sales!

ADP Employment Report-National Employment report based on private payrolls

ISM Non Manufacturing Survey Consensus 54.5

EIA Petroleum Status Report-Measures petroleum inventories in the US

Thursday 4

Monster Employment Index Job availability compiled by Monsters from 1500+ websites.

BOE Announcement- Bank of England Monetary Policy

ECB Announcement- Interest Rate policy issued by European Central Bank

Jobless Claims Unemployment claims. Consensus 310K

EIA Natural Gas Report

Factory Orders Consensus -2.8%

3 and 6 month Treasury Bill Announcement, Treasury Strips Investors use this data to attempt to predict future Federal Reserve policy.Money Supply

Friday 6

Employment Situation-Set of labor market indicators

RBC Cash Index Monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the state of the economy. Consumer spending accounts for two thirds of the economy, so this tends to be an important index.

Consumer Credit
This report represents the overall value of outstanding consumer credit debt. Very simply put, if demand exceeds supply, interest rates rise.

Coming up this week is the ISM Manufacturing Index due out Monday. If that number comes in with a lower number than expected it could indicate further rate cuts by the Fed.

If you read my Week in Review post you have a sense of our current situation, which is not great. Having said that I will point out that recessions are usually acknowledged after they have started. It could very well be that we are in a recession already and that we’re feeling the worst of it.

Of note was the interview Bloomberg Television did with Daniel Mudd, CEO of Fannie Mae in which he sees the bottom of the housing market hit towards the end of 2008.

Let’s hope he’s not right on this one. But if he is we all need to look at our business models and focus our energies appropriately. Even in a tough market people are still selling and buying.

Have a great week everyone!

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