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Archive for 8. September 2007

The Economic Week Ahead……

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Monday 10

Consumer Credit

This report represents the overall value of outstanding consumer credit debt. Very simply put, if demand exceeds supply, interest rates rise.
3 & 6 Month Bill Auction
Tuesday 11
ICSC-USB Store Sales Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales. Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales. This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

International Trade Gauges economic trends by measuring levels of imports and exports.

4 Week bill Auction

Wednesday 12

MBA Purchase Applications measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is considered a leading indicator for single family home sales and housing construction.

EIA Petroleum Status Report reports on crude oil inventories in the U.S.

Quarterly Services Survey

Thursday 13
Jobless Claims Unemployment claims.
EIA Natural Gas Report-Tracks natural gas inventories.

3 and 6 month Treasury Bill Announcement , 10 year Bond Auction Investors use this data to attempt to predict future Federal Reserve policy.

Treasury Budget

Money Supply

Friday 14

Import and Export Prices

RBC Cash Index Monthly national survey of consumer attitudes on the state of the economy. Consumer spending accounts for two thirds of the economy, so this tends to be an important index.

Industrial Production

Consumer Sentiment

Retail Sales

Business Inventories

Current Account

Last week proved to be very volatile ending with a nearly 2% decline on Friday. The nonfarm payroll number came in at a 4000 decline versus the consensus of +100,000! The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the June and July numbers down by 82,000! This is the first month since August of 2003 that payrolls have registered a negative number.

Rumors now abound of a possible 1/2% rate cut. We’ll see how the stock and bond markets react next week.

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