The Economic Week in Review….

19. August 2007 by Burbank Real Estate.

                                  
Monday  20

Leading Indicators-Consensus .4% -Report looks at ten different sources that are supposed to indicate overall economic activity.  This figure tends to be revised after the fact and does not do a great job of predicting downturns or upturns.

3 Month & 6 Month Bill Auction

Tuesday 21

ICSC-USB Store Sales  Tracks comparable weekly sales from major retail chains and represents 10% of total retail sales.  Is considered to be one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending.

Redbook a timely indicator of consumer spending and also represents about 10% of total retail sales.  This measure tracks weekly sales from discounters, chain and department stores.

State Street Investor Confidence Index Measures actual levels of risk in investor portofolio.

4-week Bill AuctionWednesday 22

MBA Purchase Applications-Measures Mortgage Lender applications, this is considered a leading indicator of single family home sales!

EIA  Petroleum Status Report-Measures petroleum inventories in the US

Thursday 23 

Jobless Claims Unemployment claims. Consensus 310KEIA Natural Gas Report

Money Supply
Friday 24

New Home Sales Consensus 820,000-Housing supply stands at 7.8 months for new homes and 8.8 months for existing homes.  New Home sales were down by 6.6% in June.

Durable Goods Orders Consensus  1.0%-This report takes into account the current and future number of orders placed with factories.  By showing how busy factories will be in the coming months you can get an indication of economic activity and health of the overall economy.

Aside from any subprime news , Asia’s reaction to the Federal Reserve’s surprise rate cut  last Friday will be front and center.

Last week was interesting as equities spiraled down the first four days to rebound on Friday, aided by the Fed’s surprise rate cut.  We did see wide swings throughout the week, sometimes 300 points, during the course of a single day.  One of the things that caused last week’s credit crunch was that banks were beginning to wait on incoming payments before making payments to their creditors in order to avoid being in the negative on cash. The Fed essentially told banks not to worry about waiting on payments because they can go to the discount window and get the reserves you need. The Fed also expanded the loan period to 30 days to those needing it.

Questions to ponder……

Will the Fed cut rates?

Will Consumer spending/strength continue?

Will Crude oil prices, the middle east situation or any other fly in the ointment impact stock prices and interest rates?

Have a great week everyone!

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